At least 330,000 new battery electric vehicles will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to an industry forecast.
The figures from DriveElectric’s own forecasts represents a significant increase from 183,000 – the number of battery electric vehicles (cars and light vans) expected to have been registered in the UK in 2021. The figure of 330,000 – which is around 16% of all new sales (up from 10% in 2021) – does not include plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).
DriveElectric uses its own model built from its intelligence of the UK market to forecast registrations of battery electric cars and vans. Background issues behind the forecast include vehicle shortages, primarily due to semiconductor supply issues, which are expected to remain until around mid-2022, with demand continuing to outstrip supply until then.
It also predicts EV production from a large number of manufacturers’ new factories to start in 2022. For example, two new Tesla factories will treble the volume for a brand that was the UK market leader in December 2021.
It adds that there will be an accelerated expansion of the public charging network, including rapid chargers, with ongoing improved reliability. DriveElectric also believes the end of the home charger grant in March won’t affect EV sales, but fewer people are likely to get chargers, and non-smart chargers will get used.
Mike Potter, managing director DriveElectric, said: “EV registrations will continue to increase, however issues such as the semiconductor shortage will still have an impact on the availability of vehicles as we enter 2022. We see this challenge improving by mid-2022 and sales for the remainder of the year should offset the slow start, helped by yet more new EV models coming to market.”
Looking further ahead, DriveElectric sees particularly high numbers of EV sales from 2025 onwards (around 50% of registrations). Registrations of petrol and diesel vehicles will decline naturally ahead of the 2030 ban, as people will stop buying them due to poor residual values, which means higher lease costs, and as EV prices become competitive with prices of ICE vehicles.