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UK leading European EV adoption as sales outlook downgraded

The UK is leading electric vehicle adoption in Europe and is second only to China in major car markets, according to a new report.

The Electric Vehicles Outlook from BloombergNEF (BNEF) shows that across pure battery electric and plug-in hybrid sales, the UK’s 29% market share was marginally ahead of France at 27% and significantly greater than Germany, with just 13.9%, as well as leading other large global markets.

The report suggested that the pressure of the ZEV mandate along with the UK’s openness to new Chinese brands such as MG and BYD was helping accelerate the country’s transition from pure petrol and diesel to plug-in vehicles.

The ZEV mandate requires 28% of all new car sales to be zero emission by the end of 2025. Currently, the figure stands at around 22%.

Globally, BNEF predicts that 22 million BEV and PHEV vehicles will be sold this year – a 25% increase from 2024 – thanks to falling battery prices and a growing number of affordable models.

It expects China to account for two-thirds of those sales and EV sales in China will outstrip total vehicle sales in the United States. Europe will be the second largest global EV market, accounting for 17% of sales, with the US taking 7%.

US policy harms global outlook

However, the report scaled back BNEF’s previous projections for EV market share, saying various policy changes in the US were “largely” to blame.

It cited the roll-back of federal fuel-economy standards, the phase-out of the EV tax credit and the potential removal of California’s ability to set its own air quality standards, as pointing to a “notable decline” in EV adoption in the US. While passenger EV sales in the US are still predicted to rise – from 1.6 million in 2025 to 4.1 million in 2030 – the revised outlook falls short of previous BNEF projections.

donald trump
US policy changes sparked by President Donald Trump are expected to harm the country’s EV adoption rate

The report presented two updated road transport scenarios. In its basic Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) – in which EV adoption is shaped by current techno-economic trends and with no new policy intervention – EVs reach 56% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2035 and 70% by 2040. Previously, they were expected to reach 73% by 2040. Despite rapid EV adoption, only 40% of the global passenger-vehicle fleet is expected to be electric by 2040, according to the revised ETS.

Colin McKerracher, head of clean transport and energy storage at BloombergNEF, and lead author of the report said: “2024 was a landmark year for electrified transport, with electric vehicles hitting global sales highs and rapidly increasing adoption from emerging markets across Asia and Latin America.

“Despite these positive tailwinds, we see slower EV adoption in the short and long-term due in large part to the changing landscape in the US. This shift in global adoption will also have major impacts on the battery industry, leading to overcapacity in manufacturing.”

The report suggests that while demand for batteries is still growing the rate of growth has slowed, largely due to slowing EV demand in the US. BNEF has cut its battery demand outlook for the next decade by 8% and says that battery plant utilisation in China is already below 50%. It says this decline in demand is leading to oversupply, which in turn is helping to force down battery prices.

The report also highlighted that range-extender EVs were the fastest growing powertrain segment last year as their popularity soars in China. While these use a battery and electric motor to drive their wheels, they also feature small petrol generators to help top up batteries on the move. Sales were up 83% in 2024, with more than 1.2 million sold globally.

Matt Allan

Matt is Editor of EV Powered. He has worked in journalism for more than 20 years and been an automotive journalist for the last decade, covering every aspect of the industry, from new model reveals and reviews to consumer and driving advice. The former motoring editor of inews.co.uk, The Scotsman and National World, Matt has watched the EV landscape transform beyond recognition over the last 10 years and developed a passion for electric vehicles and what they mean for the future of transport - from the smallest city cars to the biggest battery-powered trucks. When he’s not driving or writing about electric cars, he’s figuring out how to convert his classic VW camper to electric power.

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Matt Allan