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‘Seismic shift’ to EVs on the way as UK hits ‘peak petrol’

The UK has reached ‘peak petrol’ and the number of ICE cars will drop by almost half in the coming decade as they are replaced by electric vehicles, according to Auto Trader.

Analysis by the online marketplace suggests that the number of EVs will increase tenfold in the next 10 years as the number of petrol cars in use falls by more than 7.5 million in the same period, and diesels fall by almost 6m.

The market forecast from Auto Trader shows that the number of petrol cars will decline from the current 18.7m to just 11.1m by 2034 as drivers move towards electric vehicles. Diesel will also fall, from 10m today to 4.3m in 2034.

Over the same period, the number of EVs on Britain’s roads is set to rise from 1.25m to 13.7m.

Auto Trader’s commercial director, Ian Plummer, said the forecast represented a seismic shift for the new and used car market.

He commented: “Peak petrol is a genuine landmark for the UK. We expect to see a seismic shift in British motoring over the next decade as the number of petrol cars falls by nearly half and EVs take a much bigger share.

“All this is happening against the backdrop of exceptionally strong used car demand despite a range of challenges for the industry, not least the introduction of ZEV targets, constrained supply, changing finance rules, and the Budget.”

Strong used demand

Auto Trader expects the new car market to grow by around 2% in 2025, to 1.98m, with EVs performing better, but it warns that manufacturers will still fall short of the current ZEV mandate target. It expects the market share of EVs to rise from 18% this year to around 23% next year, well short of the 28% set out in the mandate.

Manufacturers have repeatedly warned that they will struggle to meet the targets set out. The SMMT claims that the cost of non-compliance and heavy discounts will cost the industry £6 billion this year alone.

The picture for the used market is brighter, with solid growth expected to continue across the board and EVs predicted to do particularly well as a growing number of options become available to drivers.

According to Auto Trader’s data, one in three used EVs are priced under £20,000 – a 25% increase on 2023 – while a growing number of three-to-five year-old EVs cost the same, or less, than their petrol or diesel counterparts. As a result, these ‘middle-aged’ electrics are selling in just 19 days – 11 days faster than the overall average.

Plummer added: “We’re seeing record levels of engagement on our platform, rapid speed of sale, and the stabilising of retail prices. And with the more attractively priced and available stock in recent months helping to fuel new car interest, the overall retail market is entering 2025 on a strong footing.”

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Matt Allan

Matt is Editor of EV Powered. He has worked in journalism for more than 20 years and been an automotive journalist for the last decade, covering every aspect of the industry, from new model reveals and reviews to consumer and driving advice. The former motoring editor of inews.co.uk, The Scotsman and National World, Matt has watched the EV landscape transform beyond recognition over the last 10 years and developed a passion for electric vehicles and what they mean for the future of transport - from the smallest city cars to the biggest battery-powered trucks. When he’s not driving or writing about electric cars, he’s figuring out how to convert his classic VW camper to electric power.