Fleet optimism over electric vans falters, new research finds

Fleet operator confidence in the shift to electric vans is weakening, with new research showing expectations for battery-powered models have fallen for the third consecutive year.

According to the 2025 Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer, UK fleet managers now expect electric vans to make up just 14% of their total fleet by 2028 — down from 15% a year ago and 18% in 2023.

The findings highlight a cooling of optimism about the pace of electrification across the UK’s light commercial vehicle (LCV) market, as operators grapple with persistent real-world limitations around range, payload and charging infrastructure.

Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) expectations have also declined slightly, with fleets forecasting PHEVs to account for 14% of their van mix by 2028, compared with 15% in 2024 and 11% in 2023.

By contrast, the proportion of petrol and diesel vans is predicted to rise to 71%, up from 64% last year and 62% in 2023 — signalling a short-term reversion to traditional fuels even as the Government pushes ahead with its 2035 zero-emission deadline.

John Peters, Head of the Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said the results mark a notable shift in sentiment.

“This question is one of the most interesting in the Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer, looking at how van fleets expect their fuel mix to evolve within the next three years,” he said.

“Unavoidably, the key finding here is a limited expectation that adoption of battery, PHEV and hydrogen vans will noticeably rise. In fact, there is a general feeling that the percentage of traditional diesel and petrol vehicles will increase instead.”

The survey — which gathers responses from fleet operators across a range of industries and company sizes — points to growing frustration with the operational trade-offs of electric vans.

“Fleets are encountering real-world issues with range, payload and charging, creating compromises that many operators find difficult to resolve,” Peters said.

“These are almost certainly the reasons why respondents are unconvinced about short-term adoption. Much of the work being carried out by our Arval UK consultancy team is focused on helping customers identify practical solutions.”

While many businesses have successfully integrated electric cars, the commercial vehicle segment presents more complex operational demands — from heavy payloads to unpredictable route patterns.

Industry analysts say those factors, combined with a still-limited choice of larger electric van models and a slow pace of public charging investment, continue to hold back confidence among fleet operators.

Delivery firms, utilities and trades reliant on heavy-duty vans face additional barriers due to vehicle weight restrictions and the impact of battery packs on payload capacity.

Even so, Peters believes the longer-term picture remains positive: “We think these predictions are overly pessimistic. As new, higher-range electric vans enter the market and infrastructure improves, adoption will rise substantially by the end of the decade.”

A Europe-wide challenge

The 2025 Barometer found similar trends across European and global fleets, suggesting the obstacles are not unique to the UK.

“It’s notable that fleets of different sizes in other countries are expressing the same concerns,” Peters added.
“That tells us the challenge is systemic — and that the industry must collaborate internationally to deliver solutions.”

Arval, part of the BNP Paribas Group, operates one of Europe’s largest full-service vehicle leasing and mobility portfolios. The company’s annual Mobility Observatory is regarded as a bellwether for fleet sentiment and future mobility trends.

As the UK’s commercial vehicle sector faces mounting pressure to decarbonise, the latest findings highlight the growing urgency for policymakers and manufacturers to address the structural issues slowing adoption.

Until range, payload and charging parity are achieved, analysts warn that operators will continue to hedge their bets — prolonging reliance on internal combustion engines even as regulation tightens.